The End Is Nigh Redux

Recently I wrote that the end is nigh for Reaganism. This week’s absurd shenanigans in Washington bolster that position. This is why:

I see the crisis of 2007/2008 as being the logical product of three to four decades of sustained “Reaganism”. That is a mixture of deregulatory, free market style economics, pro-business positions on just about anything – including our electoral system – and the steady demeaning of the role of government by just about everyone in power. During the entire period our elite was relatively united by ideas within which this mixture was embedded. That includes our entire political elite, Clinton and Obama being leftish but still within that right of center mainstream. If that makes sense. Certainly our business leaders were steeped in it: they pounded away at anti-worker, outsourcing enabled, shareholder value driven business models that ultimately undermined our domestic buying power and created a gaping hole in our middle class. Time after time Washington responded to business demands and lent an ear to Wall Street as if those were the only epicenters of wisdom we have.

But finance and business had it wrong. Especially finance. The epic shift in bias towards profit as opposed to wages drove us onto the rocks. Reaganism was exposed as both morally and, perhaps more importantly, intellectually flawed. Our middle class was hollowed out with the profound consequence that our young erstwhile middle class people know that whatever produced this mess is not what they want to prolong. The status quo is not acceptable.

Add in the inexorable demographic changes going on that are re-making the substance of the electorate and the failure of Reaganism is not simply a temporary glitch that can be fixed by a subtle re-think, it is a seismic shift that  requires re-invention. A new intellectual and social cycle has to begin.

Hence my view that Reaganism is over – if not just yet.

The opportunity is enormous. It is also difficult.

Which gets us to this week.

The Republican hissy fit that ensnared them was initially about Obamacare. Remember the calls for defunding? For three years Obamacare was the demon that united the Ultras who form the emotional core of the Republican party. It was the ultimate big government slap across the right wing small government face. Whether this is true or not of  health care reform is neither here nor there. The perception that drove the Ultras nuts was that it was a massive, costly, and invasive program that extended government power. And Reagan, their patron saint, had repeatedly called all such programs un-American.

Worse, this un-American program was the brainchild of a person, who being of mixed ethnic heritage, was himself also un-American in the eyes of those same Ultras. It was, therefore, a double slap across the face. It confirmed that all these costly social programs – paid for by taxes on good old fashioned Americans like the Ultras – were being run as transfers from the good folk to the bad folk (a.k.a. “them”) who were consequently labeled as moochers, layabouts, and good for nothings.

So the narrative emerged that the slow down in growth and the collapse of wages was not a failure of Reaganism, but was due to the excessive burden that “they” placed on the good folk – the Ultras. It was time to double down on Reaganism. It was time to get rid of Obama who was, after all, one of “them”.

But the demographics got in the way. The obdurate nihilism of the Republican during Obama’s first term accomplished nothing. He was re-elected. Recall that the right was caught totally unprepared for this. They were confident that they would win. By steadily shutting out the emerging more diverse, and as it turns out, correct observation of the electoral shift, the right had convinced itself it would oust Obama and his hated health care reform. When it didn’t happen they went into overdrive. The hatred boiled over and more extreme measures were contemplated.

We thus arrived at the shutdown and the threat of debt default. It is a desperate last stand for the troops who see the world through a Reaganite prism. Since the collapse of a Reaganism infused and white hegemonic America is now being revealed the Ultras are freed from the concern about extremism – in their eyes America is already destroyed, so a debt default is nothing. They can entertain wild, conspiratorial, and even secessionist ideas because they have no attachment to the new America they want nothing to do with. This is why we hear of so many odd and extreme activities. It why the Ultras view default as acceptable. It is why they are willing to subvert democracy and seize power by deploying hostage style political tactics.

And this week their action – if this were abroad we would be calling an attempted coup – fell flat.

First it met unexpected resistance from Obama, who seems to have learned that appeasement is not the way to deal with the Ultras.

Second it fell foul of the electorate who, if the polls are to be believed, have come to the conclusion that the current mess is entirely due to the Republican party’s position. The Republican’s standing in the polls has sunk to an all time low. Voters pile the blame onto the right and there is a discernible shift to the Democrats.

And, here’s the kicker, Obamacare, whose dodgy roll-out has been lost in all the other news, is getting to be more popular. It appears that by being so extreme the Republicans have managed to make voters see Obamacare in a more favorable light.

The entire Republican strategy is in tatters.

They have divided themselves very publicly between the the young turks with the Ultras and the old guard. They have made the reviled health care reform more popular. They are having to retreat from their extortion. And they have created the possibility of losing ground in next year’s midterm elections – which up until now had been unthinkable.

So instead of defending Reaganism, and possibly extending its life, they have undermined themselves, tarnished most of their younger leaders, and given the Democrats a leg up on the 2016 presidential election.

I have said before that it will not be before 2020 that the post-Reagan era really begins, and that the current interregnum is necessarily muddled. This is largely because the demographics driving the change need at least one more electoral cycle to grind into full effect. But this crisis may have accelerated that a little.

The question is: do we have the ideas upon which to build the next era? And, of more relevance, do we have the leadership?

I don’t know. Do we?