Who Needs Tariffs?
Who needs tariffs when you can screw everything up simply by talking about them? Imagine all that cash rolling in. Imagine all those foreigners crumbling under the thumb of the mighty good old USA. Imagine …
Well, just imagine.
Maybe it’s all for fun. Maybe the joke’s on us. Are we simply being too serious?
As I said: it’s all for fun.
Seriously.
We need a new vocabulary. Flip-flop seems so inappropriate. There we were embroiled deeply into a trade war. Here we are talking softly to each other on the cusp of “beautiful” deals. Was that all flip-flop? Or was it charade? Was it anything at all?
Government by arbitrary or whimsical notion is the new way America works. One day Trump announces something. The next day there is a flurry of courtier activity as they all try to design a plan that might accommodate whatever was a announced. They try to make sense of things that, inherently, do not cohere into anything resembling sense. Sometimes they succeed — on the surface at least. The contradictions and apparent randomness get swept up and put away, however briefly, and we all breath a sigh of relief. If for just a day we can rest in the imaginary world of belief that America’s leadership has a plan.
But then the next day comes and we repeat the process.
One advantage of being so hopeless and formless is that you can always find a pattern after the fact and claim that was the plan all along. If you create a big enough cloud of dust you can blind everyone sufficiently that even the slightest glimmer of light seems like a masterstroke. It’s the Trump way. It always has been. It is why he has destroyed more wealth than he generated, and it is why his biggest successes have always come when he had professional editors to shape something out of the mess he inevitably leaves on the floor. He is someone who needs an adult next to him to apologize for the tantrums and to put the toys back in the box.
So it is with tariffs.
They are the “most beautiful word in the world”. They are 10%. Or 25%. Or 45%. Or 125%. Or whatever. The USMCA is the cleverest trade deal ever written and signed by an American president. It is much, much, better than its near identical twin and predecessor NAFTA. And then it is rubbish because Mexico and Canada — the MCA part of USMCA — are thieves bent on exploiting good old America. Funny that, I wonder who the dolt was who signed such an easily exploited deal on behalf of the poor unwitting and naive Americans? Doh. But that was then.
This is now.
Which is not there, but somewhere else. Just don’t try to figure out why we all had to shift so massively. We are here now. And that was the plan all along.
I know you all understand.
Don’t you?
Oh, and Jerome Powell can’t get the heck out of the Federal Reserve fast enough. Just look at all the damage he’s doing by not following the steady hand of the boss. We need lower interest rates. We need a stronger dollar. No! We need less inflation. We need a higher dollar. In any case: he needs to go! He never looked good on TV. He’s too short. Like Yellen. He’s not Fox material. He needs to go. For sure.
Or, maybe, he’s doing a fine job. Just great. It will be a sad day when he has to step down. Still, we were all lucky to have him for the short time that we did. Who was the genius who appointed him?
Some people, desperate to find logic somewhere in all this, divine a hidden plan. The game, they argue, is to create chaos, wrong-foot everyone, and then sweep in with a brilliant master stroke, gather up the winnings, and make off before the opposition can mount a counter-attack.
Winnings? Just like in the good old days of managing those casinos?
Double doh!
Anyway. You may have noticed that the stock market loves the latest twist in the story. There was a huge new policy announcement. Well, not really. But Bessent did attend a private, behind closed doors, meeting for sundry investment banking types. Whilst there he casually dropped the news that the great US v China brawl was being softened somewhat. Tariffs were going to be reduced on all sides.
Phew.
The investors in attendance all ran off and made the suitable trades to make the most they could once this policy twist made its way into public. After all, why spend all that money on elections if you can’t get good inside information and make a quick buck? Which is what they did. Bessent is one of them. He owes them an occasional tip.
No one should ever accuse this administration of being honest. What’s the point of being in power if you can’t profit from it?
Meanwhile. What was I saying? Oh yes, tariffs.
Well, despite whatever Bessent said, they aren’t coming all the way down. Nope. Trump is determined to keep some. How much? That is yet to be calculated. No doubt using the same sophisticated methods used prior to the April 2nd version. Or was it the April 9th version?
I forget.
In any case no one should think they are off the hook. Not yet.
After all, “tariffs” is the most beautiful word in the entire language.
Until tomorrow. Or this afternoon. Or sometime.
Now it’s time to go play golf.
