Republican Sanity? Perhaps

Just a quick reminder: before we all get carried away with this new post-crisis dawn stuff, we should remember that two-thirds of the House Republicans – including Paul Ryan – voted to continue the government shutdown and to force the US into default. That thought ought to pour cold water on anyone who imagines we are out of the woods.

We are not.

A great deal now depends on the fear of electoral backlash that might – but only might – discipline enough Republicans into acting sensibly in the upcoming budget discussions.

Perhaps more importantly: there is an additional cause for concern. The Ultras have already begun to mobilize their considerable financial resources in order to make strong primary challenges against many of the Senate Republicans up for reelection in 2014. This may have one of two outcomes. Either the Ultras oust the more moderate incumbent in a primary and then lose the general election. This would strengthen the Democrats. Alternatively, the Ultra primary winner then goes on to win the general election – some of these seats are in hard right states – which would then make the Senate more volatile.

In any case I think we all ought to take care and not assume that the Republicans have suddenly seen the light and will act inside the normal channels of governance.

Seeing is believing should be our mantra. Until then careful skepticism is on order.