Bar The Shouting?

OK let’s cut the hyperbole. The current crisis is about to end. This doesn’t mean there won’t be more, indeed I suggest there will be many more, but for now this particular one is about to end.

And it will end as a crushing defeat for the Ultra extremists.

It will take an election or two to correct the imbalance that allowed the Ultras to hold us all to ransom, and as such the result is far from certain, though we can hope that a new era is dawning – one less reliant on the failed nostrums, libertarian psychology, and false economics of the last few decades.

So what is about to take place?

From what I can tell the Senate will complete its agreement on re-ropening the government and punting the debt ceiling issue into next year. This will then be taken up by the House and voted on today. That will send the agreement back to the Senate for a vote. After that Obama signs off and we all breath a sigh of relief.

This is exactly what we thought would happen yesterday. It would have had the Ultras not thrown a hissy fit and stopped the House leadership dead in its tracks. So we wasted a day. The deal we end up with is the deal we could have had many times over the last two to three weeks. The entire crisis has been about an attempted coup by the Ultras and the inability – read unwillingness – of the House Republican leadership to face down its own extremists. It took the saner heads in the Senate Republican caucus to realize that defeat was staring them in the face and to do the right thing for the country as a whole.

There are still hurdles. This is the arcane US governance system after all. No wonder no one has ever emulated it.

The House needs to vote first because this speeds up the passage of the legislation. This is why the Senate agreement remains un-voted on in that chamber until after the House vote. There is always the chance that a fringe lunatic like Ted Cruz could filibuster it in the Senate, but the odds on that are diminishing fast. After all no one wants to be associated with the “Cruz Crash”, especially Ted Cruz.

So the question now becomes: now what?

Nothing is settled. Nothing will be settled. The same argument will continue: the Republicans are still looking for dramatic reductions in social spending and a total change in the character of our economy. So all we are achieving today is a few weeks grace and the possibility of a calmer argument in January.

Meanwhile John Boehner emerges still Speaker, but hopelessly tarnished. He has no power over the Ultras. This is the most significant take-away. We have three parties in Congress, but only two formal organizations. The right is now split between an Ultra far right wing and a slightly less far right “moderate” section. The left is the usual melange of bits and pieces under the Democratic banner. So, in European parlance, Boehner actually presides over a coalition. A fractious and deeply divided one at that. It can be held together only by a focus on issues or laws equally hated by both its parts. Obamacare has played that role. Don’t forget that this entire crisis was sparked by the “defund Obamacare” movement initiated by far right think tanks and pressure groups. It helped paper over the great differences of opinion that now exist on the right. In particular it helped divert attention from the utterly destructive nature of the Ultras and their limited attachment to constructive governance. They are an entirely destructive force. They are militants. They are defiant. It is their willingness to destroy in order to “purge” the system that has caused this latest bout of dysfunction and brinkmanship.

They remain in Congress.

So today’s respite can only be temporary. Still enjoy it while you can.