If Not Boehner … Who?

A lot of media chatter has focused on Speaker Boehner’s various supposed weaknesses and his capitulation to the extremist right wingers in his caucus. There is a strong consensus that, in large part, the crisis is also one for Boehner personally. He is, it is argued, simply hanging onto power and waiting for something to turn up that can save his position as leader of the House.

But this misses a key point: if Boehner is ousted by disgruntled Republicans who could take his place and, presumably, be more effective?

No one. That’s who.

The point is that the Republican party is so deeply split that any leadership is tenuous at present. The extremists have the upper hand and are clearly dictating tactics. They are the ones we see in the press. They are the ones issuing threats to Boehner. And they are the ones whose financial backers are bullying weaker or more moderate Republicans to toe the extremist line. This last threat is easily overlooked: because of gerrymandering many, if not most, Republicans fear opposition from extreme right wing Republican challengers than they do from Democrats. This has the effect of neutering any centrist resurgence and thus keeps the caucus far to the right.

Replacing Boehner has no effect. Either his replacement is another middling Republican subject to the same pressures from the extremists, of he/she is an extremist. Either way party tactics don’t change much.

The key to unlocking the deadlock is to make the split in Republican ranks overt. To do this someone, at present Boehner, has to be willing to pass legislation in association with the Democrats. Given the acrimony and deep seated divisions in the Congressional Republican caucus this might split the party into two warring and incompatible factions. We might move quickly to a three party system with two right wing parties competing for the conservative vote and, most likely, condemning both to minority status until one or the other prevails.

An example is a potential vote for what is called a “continuing resolution” (CR). There seems to be no doubt that there are enough votes in the House to pass a CR. The Democrats and enough Republicans would have the majority. The same goes for the Senate. So the votes appear to be there to break the deadlock, end the shutdown and avert the debt ceiling crisis. The problem for the Republicans that such a vote would require them to split. Given the emotional state of the party and the stakes, it is doubtful that the party could then easily coalesce around a single agenda subsequently. That is even if Boehner were kicked out in some form of sacrificial cleansing. In other words, once they are split the fear is that they are always split.

Viewed this way the crisis is as much about trying to keep the Republicans together as one party as it is about legislating a right wing agenda. This is because there are two competing and often incompatible right wing agendas.

So the answer to the question: if not Boehner … who? is that it could be two names, not one. That would make the 2014 elections interesting.