Rubio Reality? Not Really

I have friends who think I am too harsh on the Republicans. They tell me that there are some good ideas over on that side of the fence if only blinkered and crazy liberals like myself would stop being so shrill and pay attention.

So that’s what I did.

With Marco Rubio now the new favorite son of the Republican ‘establishment’ – whatever that is nowadays – and the presumed ‘sensible’ candidate come the primary season, I think it appropriate we do exactly that: pay attention.

To his tax plan as an example.

Here it is: lots of tax cuts. So many tax cuts that, according to the Citizens for Tax Justice a leftish think tank, the Rubio plan would scrape about $11.8 trillion off of Federal tax revenues over the next decade. That’s a whole lot of lost revenue, so let’s put it in perspective.

Under present policies total Federal tax revenue in the next ten years is estimated to be about $41.6 trillion. So the Rubio plan knocks around 28% off of that. Numbers that large cannot be thought of as incremental changes or ‘fine tuning’. They are radical. Massively radical. Just to put it in perspective: the Bush tax cuts that so damaged the Federal budget accumulated to a loss of only $3.4 trillion over a decade. So Rubio is proposing something three times as big.

That’s big. It surely qualifies as revolutionary. It is hardly conservative. To achieve such levels of revenue reductions requires major overhaul of the tax code. And guess what? A very large percentage of that cut goes to the top 1% of income earners. A disproportionate amount. Now, I am certain Rubio would argue that this is only natural since those folk pay a disproportionate amount of the total tax, so a tax cut will automatically flow largely to them. Let’s acknowledge that for now, but does a tax cut have to be so balanced? Why can’t a tax cut be biased towards people with lower incomes? Why does the top tier have to benefit so much?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

As you can see from the table above, taken from the CTJ website, the proportions aren’t even closely aligned throughout the income spectrum. The top tier gets a larger percentage cut than anyone else.

We can see who is paying for the Rubio campaign. His financial support isn’t coming from small donors. Obviously.

This ought not be a surprise to any of us. Big business and the wealthy dictate the political agenda by paying for the elections. This is called ‘freedom of speech’ by the Supreme Court, and corruption everywhere else in the world.

No. It is not a surprise.

Nor is the paradox the tax plan raises.

You see, because he’s a hard core Republican, Rubio also has to claim he will reduce the Federal deficit. It is a vital plank on which any credible Republican has to run. He has even proposed that we adopt an amendment to the constitution enforcing an annual ‘balanced budget’. So his budget credentials are safely within the Republican limits of acceptability.

Anyone with ambition on the right has to propose two things in order to be taken seriously out there: they must argue for a balanced budget; and they must argue for big tax cuts.

Hence the paradox.

The conundrum is this: Knocking 28% out of federal revenue implies a similar cut in spending in order just to keep the current imbalance. To get to a balanced budget you would have to cut even more. A lot more. And Rubio doesn’t talk about this. Instead he simply throws around the Republican approved key words and hopes that no one does actual math.

Well we do, don’t we?

The answer is ugly.

Because he fears people might think he is crazy – which he is – and because he needs to shore up his popularity amongst likely voters, who tend to be older and whiter than the average population, Rubio has gone on record saying he will preserve social programs for those near retirement. Presumably he is proposing getting rid of them for younger people. Further, because to be a good Republican you have to want more military spending – apparently we don’t spend enough and the entire world is laughing at how weak we have become – Rubio has suggested he will increase the defense budget as well.

Now here’s the fun part: if we assume Rubio keeps the current levels of social programs and defense spending with no increases over the next ten years, they will cost us approximately $30 trillion.

Go back to the numbers above. Current spending projects to be $41.6 trillion. over the next ten years. Rubio wants to cut revenues by $11.8 trillion. Do the math. $41.6 trillion – $11.8 trillion = $29.8 trillion. Hey presto. To produce a balanced budget Rubio has to eliminate absolutely everything else other than defense and the big social programs. All of it. Education, justice, energy, foreign aid, poverty relief, unemployment assistance all gone. Entirely. All zeroed out. No FBI. No Supreme Court. No salaries for Senators. Nothing. Just lots of weapons and social benefits for elderly voters.

This is not a conservative plan. It is a wildly radical or revolutionary plan.

Which is why I feel completely at ease calling the current crop of Republicans totally crazy. Rubio is disconnected from reality. His plan doesn’t pass the first hurdle of being vaguely coherent. I wonder if he has thought much about it at all. Or is it simply a badge of honor to establish his credentials within the extreme world inhabited by the Republican primary voter stable?

In any case: if Rubio, and his plan,is now the new favorite of the Republican establishment, we can conclude that the so-called establishment is itself arguing for revolution. Either that or they are content with living in an alternative world where numbers don’t have to add up and the word ‘balance’ has lost its meaning.

Rubio reality is simply not real.

Why are we surprised? Or are we?