Republican Collapse?

Never say never.

But I have never seen anything quite like this. The Republican leadership is in disarray over the debt ceiling limit issue and the related deficit cutting exercise. Today’s events have been extraordinary. They reveal the GOP not only to be deeply divided – to the extent that they cannot hold together on any policy of consequence – but they they are on the verge of an epic policy defeat.

Go back three days.

At that point Obama had put a plan on the table that included deep cuts to entitlement programs, but which also included some tax increases, mostly via the back door of eliminating tax loopholes. The total reduction was $4 trillion. He had, in the process, caused an open revolt in left of center ranks, and received quite a bit of stick – not least from me.

Up until that point the main GOP plan was to tie any increase in the debt ceiling to an equivalent cut in spending. Since the general agreement was to allow a debt increase sufficient to cover the next two years, and thus to punt the next debate on debt into the next presidency in 2013, the amount needed was about $2 trillion. Smaller than the Obama proposal, and therefore less appetizing for the extreme right wing of the Republican party, who began to grumble out loud that maybe default was better anyway.

There was a major flaw in this GOP position, even at this stage. Eric Cantor, who was leading this particular charge, could never get agreement from within his own ranks on what that $2 trillion in cuts should consist of. So the Republicans themselves couldn’t find enough cuts for their own lesser proposal. Yet they kept up the anti-anything Obama says rhetoric as if they were united.

Next, yesterday, Boehner recognized how hopeless it was to unite the GOP. So he folded his hand and declared that the debt ceiling problem was Obama’s alone, and if the President wanted Republican help he should lay his cards on the table. Boehner was thus showboating knowing full well that the President had done exactly that, and it was a Republican split preventing progress, not Democratic obduracy.

As that split became more obvious it was Mitch McConnell’s turn to throw in the towel, which he duly did today. His suggestion was that the Republicans should simply step back and allow Obama to raise the debt ceiling unopposed, in the hope, presumably, that the voters would be so incensed that the President could be tarred as a typical “tax and spend” Democrat in next year’s election. The only problem with this is that it completely upends any chance the Republicans have of using the crisis as cover for their small government crusade. Next year the Democrats will be able to go to voters having defended Medicare and Social Security – the two most popular programs in America – and will be free of having to be concerned about the debt ceiling. In other words McConnell is proposing to surrender his biggest and perhaps only bargaining chip in his war on the New Deal.

The backlash from the extreme right wingers and libertarians has been astonishing.

McConnell is being called a traitor to the cause – and worse. More astonishing still, and under-reported so far, is the news that Grover Norquist is backing McConnell. This is a major coup for Obama. Remember that it was Norquist who orchestrated the origin of the “starve the beast” theory of governance. It was his notion to focus on tax cutting as the only economic policy worth pursuing by the right. He was the cheerleader for the Bush tax cuts and the devastating loss of revenue they implied. His was the vision that the extremists now want acted out. And here he is abandoning it during the end game of discussions. He caved in to reality at the very moment he needed to face the true consequences of his long advocated plan. Perhaps I misunderstand what he said. But if he did, indeed, back down, that is an epic defeat for the cause of extremist right wingers. No wonder the right wing blogosphere has exploded in an outrageous fit. The expletives are flying and the divisions within the Republicans are totally exposed.

As of this evening the Republicans are in full retreat. They are in open civil war. They are contradicting each other. They are leaderless. As a fighting force they are finished.

Let me recap:

Boehner quit the argument because he, above everyone else, realizes he cannot get his caucus to hold together on any sensible response to the Obama plan. So he claims that Obama doesn’t have a plan despite having been discussing it not twenty four hours earlier. That’s embarrassing.

Next McConnell backs away and leaves the field. His attempt to cover his retreat by casting Obama as solely responsible for upcoming higher debt is sneaky but throws away what many of his extreme followers see as a once in a lifetime opportunity to get rid of the New Deal. The opprobrium being heaped on him is not from Democrats, it is from his furious and betrayed caucus. That’s even more embarrassing.

Lastly there is Cantor. He has tried vainly to set himself up as the hardliner most likely to make Obama blink. It is his idea to tie the debt ceiling increase to a similar amount of spending cuts. But he cannot get agreement on sufficient cuts to follow through on his own plan. He is stuck without anything of consequence to say. That caps it all.

When we pull the curtain back on Republican policy we find only confusion, bluster, and division. There isn’t a policy at all. At least nothing resembling coherence. Other, of course, than the pro-dafault apocalypse being advocated by the libertarians and Tea Party.

Never say never.

In the whacky and bankrupt world of American politics this could all change tomorrow. At the moment there is no effective opposition to Obama. He could muck it up. His record isn’t very good, and he has a disappointing ability to negotiate with himself and thus compromise when he doesn’t need to. He is probably stunned by the way in which the Republicans have collapsed under the duress of actually having to legislate rather than simply saying no.

But collapse they have.

I am not sure I have ever seen such a turn of events

The next step is surely a cloud of dust and a great deal of noise to avert our eyes. Beyond that: do the Republicans have a policy? Or are they all vapor? Has their moment gone?

And does Obama have the backbone to complete the victory?

Stay tuned. We are just getting started.