Republican Strategy

As I have mentioned before: what are they thinking?

The Republicans have taken a dramatic stand on deficit reduction. Indeed they have made it their entire reason for being since they retook the House last November. Their hardline supporters are fired up and believe that this is their opportunity to hack away at the social programs they hate so much. This intent was the motivation behind their defunding of the government back in 2001 and 2003. Their goal back then was to set the stage for a fiscal crisis that they could use as cover or diversion for the real aim of dismantling those programs.

So it isn’t a surprise when we read the now famous Ryan plan to cut the deficit, and its central theme of getting rid of Medicare via the backdoor method of instituting a voucher system.

But perhaps it should be a surprise.

By being so blatant about their plan the Republicans have come out from behind their usual obfuscation. Normally, for seventy odd years, they have ranted about the evils of social programs and then done nothing to eradicate them. This hypocrisy was based on the knowledge that the voters love those programs and want to defend them at all costs. So GOP strategy was to attack big government in order to protect and enhance their right wing credibility, but then to go along with whatever funding was needed to keep those programs healthy and alive in order to get elected.

This two faced paradoxical approach served them well for decades, but began to change after Reagan. Since then the virulent drum beat from their ever more extreme supporters has been to drop the pretense and go on the attack. Hence the defunding efforts of the Bush era.

There is one problem with this more open and aggressive attitude.

No one likes it.

No one. Well not quite no one. Presumably the extremists in Congress are on board, but no one else is.

So: what are they thinking?

Why would they adopt such a hard right wing stance now, when the President is weak and their stock is running high?

The problem with their strategy comes into sharp relief when we consider voter opinion. Since the Ryan plan was announced polls have shwon voters want to keep Medicare. The vast majority want it left well alone. The margins in favor of leaving Medicare untouched are huge. It isn’t even close. As we would expect self described Democratic supporters are overwhelmingly against cuts. Over 90% of Democratic voters oppose anything remotely like a reduction in Medicare. 75% of independent voters also oppose change.

Republican voters?

Here’s the problem for Ryan and company. Over 70% of Republican voters want Medicare left alone too. Indeed they are even more adamant about there being no cuts at all: not even a tweak.

In the recent annuls of American politics never has there been so solid a bloc of voters, left, middle, and right supporting the same program. Attacking it has, thus, all the makings of a suicide mission.

I realize that in the hubbub of a live election these support levels may shift. Especially when the Republicans use the recent health care reform as a smoke screen to confuse the electorate. But those levels of support are unlikely to melt away entirely. And even Obama, not known for his challenging or robust nature, cannot mistake the opportunity to rally his troops. He has been handed a great big beautiful pre-election bonus with which to beat the Republicans and to paint them as so extreme that they are untrustworthy custodians of America’s core and most beloved program.

So: what are they thinking?

I imagine they are so enthralled with their own rhetoric, and so self-absorbed by their long struggle to oppose Medicare, that they are blind to the wishes of the public. They hear one side of the public’s complaint: federal government seems very big. They ignore the other: people like it that way. Voters want the security of Medicare. They don’t want to pay for it. This dichotomy is the result of the incessant Republican chant against taxes and their delivery over recent decades of tax cuts that apparently have done little damage. Voters became accustomed to getting something for nothing.

Now that demographics and the crisis have exposed the folly and irresponsibility of the Republican bait and switch, we all being forced to choose between raising revenues to pay for things we like – in this case Medicare – or giving those things up. We seem to want to keep the good stuff.

The Republicans have nailed their colors to the wrong mast. They misjudged the character of the country. When pressed, voters are willing to forgo that extra tax cut, or even to endure a tax increase to keep their most coveted program alive.

One more fact from recent polls: even a majority of Republican voters support raising taxes on upper income earners if that means keeping Medicare. This is Obama policy. It is what the Republicans in Congress are attacking.

Maybe the Republicans in Congress are just deaf. In any case never have they been more out of step, not just with people as a whole, but with their own supporters. As of now the only people who are on board with the GOP deficit cutting plan are the Tea Party extremists.

Oh. wait. That’s not true either. Over 70% of self-identified Tea Party supporters want to keep Medicare afloat.

So: what are the Republicans thinking?

Their plan must be so subtle that no one outside their leadership seems to know.

I certainly don’t.