The Budget Day Two

Well that didn’t take long.We have now begun the circus I expect to last for a long time. Welcome to our national debate about fiscal priorities. How are we doing so far?

Here’s John Boehner, leader of the House Republicans:

“In the last two years, under President Obama, the federal government has added 200,000 new federal jobs,if some of those jobs are lost so be it. We’re broke.”

Get that?

We’re broke. That’s why we need to lay off thousands more workers and subtract all their salaries and wages from our economy. After all they are government workers and not real workers. We all know that government jobs aren’t real. Don’t we?

And, just how are we broke? I imagine someone in the credit markets, like the banks and others who we borrow from, might have noticed . They have quite a lot at stake in the issue. So I went to check Wall Street this morning and search for the panic that must surely be there. I looked at bond yields. I looked at spreads. I scoured the data. Mr. Boehner says we’re broke. There must be evidence. You know, facts. Those little annoying things that sometimes get in the way of terrific rhetoric. But nowhere could I find such panic. Apparently we are broke and our borrowers don’t yet know it. This is a great deal. We should all promise to keep quiet about it so the lenders we rely on don’t find out. That way we can keep up the charade.

Doh! Boehner let the cat out of the bag. Now the markets will notice after all.

Apart from our being broke, the other big news in the Boehner statement is that he doesn’t care about rising unemployment. We should throw those people out anyway. No one cares about the jobs.

Except for a certain John Boehner who famously shouted out “where are the jobs?” during the recent election. I imagine he was referring to some other jobs. Not government ones.

And where did that 200,000 increase come from? I can’t find it anywhere. Perhaps Mr. Boehner could quote his sources. The Obama budget includes an estimate that the number of government employees will rise to about 2.15 million over the budget horizon, topping that 2 million level for the first time for decades. The civilian side of government will add about 153,000. Given that up until last fall the Obama administration had added a net 10,000 from the level Bush left in place I don’t see where the Boehner claim comes from. I wait to be educated.

I probably will be waiting a long time.

Meanwhile the debate lacks other sensible facts. USA Today just published a ridiculous piece of “analysis” that shows government employees earning an average of $123,049 in wages and benefits in 2009 versus a private sector average of $61,051. This is rubbish. It is scandalous that it gets published. Now it is out in the public domain it is already fueling waves of attacks on the waste and excess it seems to imply. These numbers mean nothing for the very simple reason that they have no comparative validity. They do not compare like for like jobs. The private sector average includes fast food chain workers for instance. Since when did the US government flip burgers? Nonsense like this contributes to the already deep misunderstanding of our budgetary issues. Unfortunately that’s where we are.

So our great debate is not off to an altogether promising start. We lack facts. But we do have plenty of warnings, urgency, and fears. Here’s Boehner again:

‰ÛÏWe need to liberate our economy from the shackles of big government, not bury our children and grandchildren under a mountain of debt‰Û?

Wow that’s strong.

I suppose the Bush tax cuts didn’t create mountains of debt. Just little foothills perhaps?

This is going to be tough to take.

Oh. And about “big government”.

Wrong. When we take into account to size of the US population, as in getting a sense of proportion, we find that the number of US government workers per thousand of population is now at its lowest since 1962.

And US government expenditures are exactly on their long term trend line. Any surge in expenses due to the safety net payments in the crisis have been offset by cuts at the local level. Our government is the same size it has been for a while now.

So big government exists only in the minds of those who want to imagine it. Still, that won’t stop them wanting to cut into it.

If only we could have an adult discussion.

Supported with facts.