Consumer Confidence … Up?

Given that only yesterday I was reporting on the Conference Board’s data showing that US consumer confidence had fallen for the second straight month, you can imagine my surprise when I came across a report from Nielsen with the headline: “US Consumer Confidence Up For First Time Since 2007”. The report comes through the Reuters news feed and doesn’t seem to get much play here – its target is more European.

The survey Nielsen undertakes is worldwide so that it can compare trends in various countries. Currently the general trend is positive, which is what we would expect given that the trough of activity has passed us by at least three months ago.

What sticks out, though is that comment about the US. The only way I can reconcile the two reports is by noting that the Conference Board’s survey is monthly, whereas the Nielsen one is quarterly. Plus the survey sample for the Conference Board is larger which should yield a more accurate result.

Given all this, what Nielsen has captured seems to be that US consumers are not as depressed as they were in mid summer. A closer inspection of the Conference Board index shows the same result. Where the two differ is that in the interim the Conference Board has detected a negative shift. Presumably Nielsen will capture that the next time they are out in the field.

At any rate we have a choice. US consumers are either more or less optimistic than they were. That seems an airtight conclusion. Which only reinforces my constant warning: do not take too much notice of one month – or one quarter in the case of Nielsen – but rather let the trend reveal itself.

My money’s on the Conference Board.