Breaking News

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Israel on the Rampage

This is nuts. The Israelis have shot their way into a Paletinian prison, no doubt killing a few folks [i.e. common criminals] along the way, in order to “get” a particular prisoner who they “suspect” is linked with the assassination of a right wing Israeli politician a couple of years back. No proof mind you. Just an assertion by the Israeli administration. The New York Times reports the story here: Israeli Forces Lay Siege to Palestinian Jail

Now that’s the way to teach ’em! Let’s go kill a few of those Palestinians. No need for a justice system. Hell with the rule of law. That’s stuff’s for the weak. They kill, so we’ll kill. Tit for tat.

And then the hypocritical pro-Israeli types will be stunned by the popularity of Hamas. Gee I wonder how that happened? It can’t possibly have anything to do with pictures of tanks rolling through Jericho streets because that was a totally justified defensive action. Nah! Can’t be that! Must be that congenital violence that all Palestinians have.

Then again there is an Israeli election coming up. Lynching a few Palestinians is always a good way to shore up the right wing vote.

And I wonder why Hamas won that vote.

No I don’t.

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Repeat After Bush: Have no Fear

I mean does anyone actually pay attention to him anymore? There he was giving yet another keynote speech to yet another captive and compliant audience, in yet another midwestern friendly state, and yet again he claims all is well in Iraq. Do not worry. Have no fear. Stay the course. Do not worry. Have no fear. Stay the course. It’s almost hypnotic. He speaks as if he can make reality just by giving speeches, as if his words will come true just because they are his words. He is, after all, The Leader. Repeat after Him: have no fear, have no fear, have no fear …

Well George, sorry, but right next to the report on your speech telling us all about the good thing that is Iraq, was a story reporting the discovery of 87 more bodies. More victims of sectarian violence. More indictment of the policy failure that was foisted on us by a leader who now seems so remote from reality that even the fairy tale about the emporor’s clothes is an inadequate analogy.

When this history is written the decline and fall of American power began with the misadventure into Iraq. It exposed to the world the real frailty of American erstwhile power: the politicized intelligence; the corrruption; the incompetence; the puffery; the fearfulness; and the overarching complacency of a population who wants to believe a liar because its easier than having to stand up to him. And he keeps on making those stupid speeches.

No we have nothing to fear except more of his incompetence. And that we are stuck with because we have no way of getting rid of his scourge.

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America a Democracy? Now there’s a thought …

The New York Times ways in on the topic of the Electoral College: Drop Out of the College

Well it’s about time the whole Electoral College thing was consigned to the trash heap. It’s undemocratic. No debate is needed beyond that. The U.S. elects its Presidents in a wholly undemocratic and antiquated way. It is very quaint to hear Americans come up with convoluted and anti-democratic defenses of what is an historical fudge. The people who came up with the College had already voted against the idea a few times, but under the threat of failure to draw up a new constitution because of the obstinacy of the slave states they caved in and saddled us with this bizarre anachronism. Enough. Get rid of it before it does more damage to the country. There is no argument worthy of a second’s thought to justify its continued existence. It is a vestige of the country’s slave owning roots; it distorts modern political campaigning toward ‘battleground states’; it gives disproportionate power to small states and thus twists priorities toward issues that resonate in those states; and, most of all, it produces presidential winners who do not have majority voter support. It has to go.

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January Trade Deficit

For those of you who want a divertion from the grim reality of American politics: here’s the equally grim reality of the American economy. The January trade deficit was the worst ever. You can find the official report here: Department of Commerce Home Page

There’s nothing much to add is there? America continues to have an appetite for foreign products that is way, way beyond the appetite foreigners have for American products. The trade deficit is now larger in absolute dollars and as a percentage of the economy than ever before.

Here’s my take: the deficit is bad. The American economy is gamboling along at a solid rate. As a result it is sucking in stuff from around the world. This is particularly true for oil and some types of manufactured goods. The problem is that American demand is inflated by very low interest rates, low taxes, and a complete lack of savings [as I have commented before Americans now save less than zero: the last time that happened was in the Depression].

Those infamous tax cuts did not stimulate production in the U.S., instead the money was spent on foreign goods: think of all those Chinese workers who are living off the tax cut money. Bush is correct when he says that tax cuts stimulated the economy, the problem is that they stimulated only one side of the equation. Investment in the American economy was not stimulated. Those new jobs etc were added abroad.

Interest rates have been held low for far too long with the result that there has been a distortion in investment: investment money has been channelled into assets like housing [hence the bubble] rather than factories etc that help boost the future economy. So even though recent productivity numbers have looked good, they probably will tail away over the medium term. And low interest rates have created a disincentive to save: why save when the return is so low? On the contrary low interest rates are an incentive to borrow. Americans have been following the low interest rate script perfectly. They are borrowing and then spending like no tomorrow.

And these trade deficit figures are the end result, and will have to be corrected sometime. They are unsustainable because the corresponding inflow of capital needed to pay for the trade deficit [don’t forget that a trade deficit automatically implies a capital inflow surplus] is being used for consumption rather than infrastructure and investment. In laymen’s terms this is like borrowing money to go out to dinner rather than to build a new home: the dinner is gone in a twinkling while the house is an asset for years to come. More prosaically foreigners are lending to Americans so that Americans can turn around and buy goods from those same foreigners. Its a classic addiction. So rather than building for the future Americans are consuming in the present. Sooner or later they will have to pay for the binge.

The question becomes one of how damaging the “adjustment” will be. I doubt whether there will be a dramatic collapse. Most likely the dollar will fall considerably over a few years and American demand will have to be curtailed below its historic average for a few years also. After that slow period trade will be back closer to balance. So look for slower growth, higher taxes, and higher interest rates. Nothing too calamitous, but just insidious enough to remind us all that the mistakes of the Bush era will resonate long into the future, not just in foreign policy, but here at home as well.

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Security and the Republicans

Here’s a story in the New York Times: Suddenly, a Rebellion in the
G.O.P. on a Signature Issue Basically the argument is that some Repuiblicans are beginning to break ranks with the White House even on security issues, which have hitherto been seen as a place to close up ranks. They hope to separate themselves from the ever unpopular George Bush by doing this. Many want to appear more “moderate” than Bush.

That’s a joke right?

The Times itself, in an editorial, slams the decision not to investigate the illegal wiretapping program undertaken by the Administration as “breathtakingly cycnical” … so where is this breaking of ranks? Where is the “moderation”? On the Dubai ports management contract. On one issue. One. And that an issue more based upon xenophobia than on security. Hardly a moderate posityion.

These so called rebellious Republicans have stood aside while the Bush regime has executed a relentless series of assaults on American civil liberties and human rights all in the name of security. Worse: they have been complicit in this program, they have abrogated their constituional role as watchdogs in order to pursue single minded partisan politics. The entire Republican Congressional delegation has closed ranks behind Bush ever since 9/11. They made security a partisan issue. And now we are supposed to be encouraged that one or two are “breaking ranks” as Bush’s poll numbers threaten to prevent re-election for some of them this Fall?

Nuts!

Moderation was long since expelled from the Republican party. Any Republican who tries to position themselves as moderate by opposing Bush now is flat out lying … unless, of course they have opposed him in all his attacks on our liberty. None have done that. So none are moderate.

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