Gone Fishing …
Well not really. Just off for a couple of weeks. So no posting. Let’s hope that my absence cures the country’s economic woes. Somehow, however, I suspect it’ll be in the same fine mess that it is now.
Oh well.
See you later.
Peter Radford / Uncategorized /
Well not really. Just off for a couple of weeks. So no posting. Let’s hope that my absence cures the country’s economic woes. Somehow, however, I suspect it’ll be in the same fine mess that it is now.
Oh well.
See you later.
Peter Radford / Commentary, Economics / health care, Romney /
Could he be more stupid?
Not only is Mitt Romney the architect of Obamacare via the system he invented for Massachusetts, and mightily reviled by the right wing for it, but he is also a huge fan of all things Israeli. As you all know it is essential that any candidate for president in the US abandon all objectivity and instead throw themselves fully behind Israel no matter what the consequences. And Romney has gone further than most. He has embraced the Israeli health care system, the results of which he has praised to the rafters.
And indeed the Israeli system is a paragon of low cost efficiency with spending limits set per person, hard negotiation over prices, and great pressure on doctors to provide value for money.
It is also a government run single payer system.
It is the very antithesis of the US system. And is the kind of evil government intrusion into private lives that the modern Republican party so despises.
In other words, in his zeal to endorse all things Israeli as he chases the American Jewish vote, Romney has lauded the anti-christ of health care systems.
It will be fun to watch him walk this back. Has there ever been a more inept candidate? Not even Bush was this dumb.
I never thought I would say that.
Peter Radford / Commentary, Economics /
I didn’t comment on last week’s miserable GDP report because (a) it was so mediocre, and (b) it was right in line with where I have been saying we would be. In other words there was no real news. We are adrift. Rudderless, leaderless, and out of ideas our elites – political, business, and academic – appear to have talked and argued themselves into a total full stop. The rest of us will have to make do while they indulge themselves in more of their futile and useless hand wringing.
The numbers speak for themselves.
GDP grew at a 1.5% pace last quarter. That’s around half what we would expect in a normal ‘good’ quarter, and nowhere near enough to make much dent in unemployment. Indeed at the current rate it is quite possible that unemployment will tick up slightly later in the year as businesses tighten up for a weak 2013. At this juncture the only reason that unemployment may dip as the year progresses is because more people drop out of the workforce. This is hardly a success.
The core of our problem remains in personal consumption. It rose at that same 1.5% pace and provides inadequate reason for businesses to hire or invest in the near term. We have a massive and ongoing demand problem the solution to which is clear, but politically infeasible. We need to ramp up government spending and encourage a bout of inflation in the 3% – 4% range. Since we will get neither we are doomed to wallow some more.
I have a had a number of recent conversations during which it is more than clear that the value of stimulus is completely lost on people. On the contrary the alternative of greater austerity seems to ring true to the ears of most. So when we suggest that stimulus is politically infeasible what we are calling into question is the ability of our leadership to frame or shape the debate. The entire policy discussion, such as it is, appears to be taking place within a context that is skewed towards shrinkage and failure rather than expansion and recovery. The ability to end this depression is within our grasp, but a sufficiently strong core of people resist the ideas underlying the solution so that we never have the debate we need.
Couple to that political gridlock the ongoing debasement of true democracy in the USby inflows of money, and the consequent endemically corrupt political process, and we arrive at a state where a few groups can dictate the policy argument and twist it to their short term gain and away from consideration of the benefit of the populace at large. Our economic institutions have shifted from being largely inclusive and productive of broad scale benefit, to being more and more exclusive and productive for a restricted few. This shift has been a paradoxical consequence of the effort to open up the economy and to deregulate it. Paradoxical, that is, to the naive alone. Anyone else would have, as many of us did, protest that opening up our economic institutions exposed them to capture if, at the same time, our political institutions were co-opted by an energetic and well financed minority.
The reason that the Reagan/Clinton/Bush era has seen the steady erosion and eclipse of our middle class is simply attributable to this coincidence of political and economic enclosure. The modern enclosure movement echoes that of pre-industrial Britain. A segment of society sees benefit in the execution of new ideas and techniques and seeks to extract value from them. In order to do this they have to re-arrange society. They need to dispense with prior existing social contracts and establish new ones that give them leeway to effect the value creating change. They need to co-opt the political process in order to write the laws needed. They need to alter inhibiting social norms. They need to entrench themselves so as to extract what they can. And they need to divert the dispossessed into different and more malleable channels of subsistence.
In our case the new technology or set of ideas that undergirds the modern enclosure movement is that of economics. Particularly neoclassical economics. Whether we like it of not modern America is increasingly being re-shaped to conform with the notions of society that form the basis of that theory. Variants of it infest modern business management theory; they underpin the explosion in the share of our economy diverted into finance; they inform the media’s attitude towards policy; they form the basis of common discussion about the economy; and they provide an intellectual backdrop for the dominance of post-Reagan right wing political positions. There has been no effective reaction from the left over the past four decades because its elite too has been captured.
The attack on welfare and social programs makes most sense in the context of a latter day enclosure movement.
The incessant attack on the older social contract by the operatives of modern management and economic thinking has undermined voter’s loyalty to the very institutions that protected them. Government is reviled. It is seen as irredeemably inefficient, whether or not that is true. Unions are seen as obstacles riven through with rules that prevent progress rather than as bastions against exploitation. Rather than reform or improve these institutions we are presented with only one solution: get rid of, or marginalize, them. That way enclosure can proceed. The route to efficiency is presented only in the context of neoclassical dictums. Alternatives are taken off the table.
Our entire elite has become, effectively, part of the enclosure movement. Opponents linger in outposts but are not taken seriously. Indeed quite often they become caricatures of themselves advocating ever more stridently the very actions that brought them defeat. By so doing they ensure their marginal status. They become locked in what society at large – as led by the elite – views as the past. This is why no one takes Marxism seriously even though there remains great value in a Marxist critique of our problems. Likewise Keynesians have found it difficult if not impossible to get their policy solutions enacted. Memories of what efficacy such groups may have is expunged so that enclosure may take hold.
Thus it is that we are having an election in which it is taken as read that we need a ‘long term solution’ to our ‘entitlement problems’. Whether we have such problems is not being discussed. Austerity, which is manifestly a disaster in Britain and Europe, is seen as the only ‘serious’ policy action. That we can solve our debt problem – if it exists – through issuing more debt is greeted with incredulous and knowing smiles by our elite. As if their actions were innocent of harm.
So.
Yes. Our economy is wallowing. But it is a deliberate wallowing. It is the direct result of decades of effort. It is entirely predictable and consequential to the ongoing enclosure of our economy by people energized and validated by economic theories that treat human beings not as people but as machine like units substitutable and uniform and endowed with an Orwellian version of choice. That being a choice that always follows the thought processes of neoclassical economics. Such thought processes is an oxymoronic concept and wreaks of hypocritical irony when articulated by an academic safely entrenched behind the barriers of tenure.Indeed the concept of choice in Rational Choice theory is neither rational nor choice. It is ideological armory for enclosure.
So we wallow.
It is not worth worrying about the economy when it’s performance is subject to political constraints. Our discussion ought not to focus on economic policy but on the enclosure movement and the grab for power now underway. That’s a far bigger fight and one that many people I know don’t have the stomach for because it requires them to recognize the deep flaws and myths that riddle the image of America they hold dear.
So we wallow.
Peter Radford / Commentary, Economics / bailouts, bank reform, banking, Citibank /
I must be getting old. Too old to understand English anymore. Sandy Weill, architect of Citibank’s ill advised growth, and long time advocate of the form of universal banking that brought about the crash, has just pronounced on the state of banking.
And called for the break up of the big banks.
Pinch me please.
Or at least roll the drums.
This is an astonishing volte face for someone who championed the elimination of Glass Steagall. More than that. He engineered a merger between Citi and an investment bank that was illegal at the time, so he had to get the law changed in order to complete the deal. He was that involved in shaping the modern banking scene. He was one of the fiercest opponents of regulation. He was outspoken, hard charging, and the very essence of the kind of banker who now dominates the industry. The mega banks were, in large part, his creation.
Now he wants them broken up.
There are two ways of looking at this.
One is that he sees the error of his ways and now wants, for all the right social reasons, the banks to be cut down in size and scope.
Or.
Maybe. Just maybe the reason he is willing to undo his life’s work is that his shares in Citi suck. A quick analysis tells me that Citi is worth more to its shareholders broken up. The parts are definitely worth more than the whole. So Our reformed Mr Weill is simply being a smart investment banker. He stands to gain a lot. A whole lot. So of course he wants them broken up. It’s all about the financial engineering.
Do I care?
Not really.
If Weill and his ilk make a bundle when we break up the mega banks, so be it. The social goal is to get rid of them. The taxpayers will win as well. The only people to lose will be the current executive teams of the banks who are the only reason those banks exist in their current form. No one else benefits. Indeed, as Weill is letting us know, everyone else, even the shareholders, suffer. And that’s saying something.
Not only are the mega banks too big to fail, too big to manage, too big to regulate, too big to analyze, and too big to understand, but they are too big to own. They have outgrown any useful purpose.
Break up the banks! Even Sandy Weill agrees.
Peter Radford / Commentary, Economics / home prices, Obama, recession, recovery, Romney, wages /
Such is the breadth and depth of the Romneyfication of our economy that otherwise sensible people make silly faux pas or repeat false thinking without a hint of knowledge of their error.
Take Sebastian Mallaby for instance. I was pleased with his two recent articles on banking. He offered us all a strident argument for the break up of the biggest. His logic was impeccable. His conclusions irrefutable. Of course this glowing reference of mine might be due to my prior identical argument. So, he rose in my estimation. Only to trip up.
In his article in today’s Financial Times he goes to great lengths to criticize the Fed’s rather anemic approach at present. Despite the manifest failure of its previous efforts to bring down unemployment, and despite the recent gathering of darker clouds portending a weakening of the economy, the Fed is stuck in a dithering pattern. This is largely because there are one or two strict advocates of depression austerity on the board who manage manfully to scupper progress most of the time. I think, also, that Ben Bernanke, being a stout Republican, is loath to do too much to help Obama.
So Mallaby hits away at this ineptitude. Good so far.
But.
Buried towards the end of his article we find this gem:
“Banks, having sold Treasuries, must choose to reinvest the proceeds in riskier assets rather than just adding to their huge cash piles. Corporations, facing lower borrowing costs, must resolve that this is the moment to invest. Consumers, seeing rising stock and bond markets, must summon the confidence to spend. If the Fed won‰Ûªt take the risk of going beyond what it has tried already, private actors won‰Ûªt take risks either. Monetary policy is like faith healing. The patient must believe.”
So. The path to success and to our final breakout from this lingering depression of ours is to engender confidence. That, apparently will solve everything.
No it won’t.
While I agree that confidence play a large role in shaping economic activity via the formulation of expectations and the encouragement of ‘animal spirits’, I am not sure that they are the critical element at play dragging us all down at present.
Ponder, for instance, on the way in which consumers are supposed to get back on track. According to Mallaby they need to see the stock and bond markets in glowing health. That will, apparently, cause them to cast aside their cares and go out on a shopping spree. Only a true child of the Romney era could ever think this. Us less educated types think that the lack of spending power may be a tad more important. And for the large majority of non-Romney people spending power flows from wages not stock or bond appreciation. It is the lack of wage growth for decades now that has caused the seizure of our economic motor, not the failure of stock prices to continue into orbit.
Now, I will grant that the middle class is too obsessed over house prices and that the crash in such prices has a lot to do with the enervation of our willingness to spend. But the reason we are so obsessed is precisely because homes are the largest assets most families own. Not stocks. Where the average family owns stock it is usually tied up in some form of retirement account and is managed by someone else. So whilst the financial media reports every little blip in stock prices, and I am sure many people take notice of them, when pinch comes to shove and a decision to buy something looming, it is cash in the bank that counts more than anything. And, as I have pointed out, that cash is most likely derived from wages.
This is, I am afraid, where the entire Romney generation gets off track. So enthralled are they by shareholder value, rational expectations, efficient markets, and market magic in general, that they entirely miss the point. They have done well. They do, in fact, have stock portfolios. They are concerned over stock prices. They worry about the things that Romney worries about. They have similar educations and world outlooks. They represent the failures of the Reagan/Bush delusion that free markets fix everything. And that for free markets to get on with this fixing of everything all we need is to inject a burst of confidence.
Rubbish.
Cash helps too. In fact it dominates all else.
During the last three or four decades our economy has shifted its weight behind profit and away from wages. It has been Romneyfied. Business firms have defended profit at all costs. They have Romneyfied the economy by gutting, deconstructing, outsourcing, offshoring, breaking contracts,and generally trampling on the workers who, in their role as consumers, those very firms rely upon for sales. It is no surprise therefore for the game to come to an end someday. When workers as consumers have no more cash, or when they have to reduce debt from flat wages, they spend less. Demand falls. Or its growth is meager. All the confidence in the world will not generate a spurt in spending if people have nothing extra to spend.
So it would be nice for confidence to grow. But it would be nicer were wages to grow first. But that means profits would have to fall relatively. And that doesn’t fit the Romneyfied narrative. So we don’t hear people like Mallaby talk about it.
Shame. Those banking articles were quite good.