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    Economics / recession, recovery, unemployment /

    Green Shoots: Unemployment Gloom?

    June 25, 2009

    While everyone seems to be convinced that the recession is now approaching its end, or is at least getting worse less slowly, the data continues to wobble back and forth. So I repeat: look at trends, not single pieces of data. This morning’s release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics [‘BLS’] of last week’s claims […]

    Economics / durable goods orders, new home sales, recession, recovery /

    Green Shoots Watch: All Orange!

    June 24, 2009

    Our mid week green shoots watch produces two contradictory data points: Durable goods orders rose 1.8% in May, that’s better than expected, there have been gains in three of the past four months, and this is an excellent leading indicator of manufacturing. Great. Ring the bells. Blue skies ahead. Not so fast. Sales of new […]

    Economics / health care, Obama /

    Obama’s Health Care Trap

    June 24, 2009

    Politics is not chess, so there is no true ‘check mate’ moment: your opponent can always wriggle free by bending the rules or being plainly silly. Nonetheless yesterday Obama set a trap worthy of a chess master. During his sometimes testy discussion of health care he wondered out loud about the logic of those who […]

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