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    Economics / deficits, Obama /

    Obama Gets It Wrong

    November 18, 2009

    There’s not much to say. In an interview with Fox today Obama warns us all about the threat of a double dip recession. So far so good. I agree. The cause? Too much debt and the subsequent possible loss of confidence in the bond markets that could trigger the need for higher US interest rates. […]

    Uncategorized / consumption, GDP, inflation, jobs, real estate, recession, recovery, stimulus, unemployment /

    Are We Already Slowing Down Again?

    November 18, 2009

    The data from the last couple of days has me wondering whether the growth in the third quarter – which increasingly looks likely to be reduced from the first estimate in next week’s revision – is something of a tease. Indeed the questions about next year are gathering more ominously and require both thought and […]

    Economics / Federal Reserve Board, GDP, inflation, monetary policy /

    Is Inflation a Shortcut to Safety?

    November 16, 2009

    Yes. The ideal economic policy for the next few years would be one that allowed a modest pick up in inflation, say into the 3% to 4% range. This would have the enormous benefit of reducing debt burdens as we switch the economy from its debt obsession to a more thrifty savings rate. It would […]

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