Comment on the Election

I know, I know: I haven’t posted here for a long time. I’ve been too busy finishing my book and getting it ready for publication. During that time the election took place and the Republicans were deservedly hammered. Here’s a good piece by the New York Times on one of the more interesting side bars to the results: A G.O.P. Breed Loses Its Place in New England

Here’s what I said about the election ten days ago:

Clearly the election has changed the political landscape. Just what happens now is the most interesting aspect of post-election analysis. Here’s my stab at the future:

First: the Republican coalition seems to have a few cracks in it. About a third of the ‘evangelical’ vote went to the Democrats this time which is about double the level Bush achieved in 2004. Corruption was the big factor here, and anyone with a semblance of morality would want to clean up the mess regardless of party. Also there are signs that the ‘evangelical’ wave is abating: some are now turning away from politics because it is outside their preferred sphere of activity [which is purely spiritual and not at all ‘earthly’]; others are becoming more involved in social issues in a reformist fashion which is not necessarily right wing [there is a long tradition of religious involvement in social reform, quite often on the left of politics]. Another crack in the wall is the loss of confidence by the fiscal conservatives. These folks are horrified at the levels of spending that the Bush administration has produced, and at the levels of pork Congress has legislated into being. We should recall that the past few years have seen the highest levels of public spending in US history, which is hardly what the fiscal conservatives had in mind back in 1994. These people are unlikely to cross over to the Democrats, but their disillusionment apparently kept them home. Lastly there is the libertarian component of the Republican party. There are signs that these guys are extremely annoyed at the willingness of the religious right to push government into the personal lives of citizens [all those issues such as gay marriage, abortion, Schiavo, and wire tapping etc] and they are ‘up for grabs’ as a political group, especially in the Western states. The Dems have a real opportunity here to weaken the grip of the Republicans permanently and thus help shift the political landscape radically. I would look for a period of recrimination and introspection by the Republicans. Quite a few moderates lost their seats which means that those remaining are, on average, more conservative. This may make it harder for the Repubs. to ‘recapture’ the center.

Second: the middle ground has shifted towards the Democrats [due to Iraq and corruption]. They took a majority of the independents this time: this was a group that Bush won easily in 2004. The Democrats now can position themselves as the center party and paint the Republicans as the extremists. I see this as the real opportunity coming from this election. The agenda for the next few years will be dominated [apart from Iraq] by domestic issues. At the same time the electorate seems to have tired of the succession of ‘culture war’ issues that form the basis of the religious right [stem cell research won in Missouri and an anti-abortion law was struck down in both California and South Dakota]: the focus should now turn to the old fashioned pocket book issues that the Democrats have traditionally emphasized [education, minimum wage, health care etc]. If Pelosi etc can carve this out [and the first signs are encouraging] then the next few years offer an exciting chance for the Dems to re-establish a center-left majority resistant to the religious right attacks. [BTW the gender gap came screaming back in this election with women going Dem. very dramatically: this could be very important in the next election cycle].

Third: the Democrats appear to have been much better organized than we gave them credit for. They chose good [often conservative] candidates, they were disciplined, they have begun to construct a solid national organization [courtesy of Dean!], they raised more money than before [although much less than the Repubs.], and were able to exploit voter weariness with what was a hugely ineffective Congress. Pelosi also deserves credit for working behind the scenes to instill discipline. Overall the party seems to be in good shape. But we should remember that this is the beginning and the Dems. need to consolidate in Congress in the next two elections: still the outlook is certainly better than it has been for a decade.

Fourth: there are regional trends that are significant. Dean’s efforts to make the Dems. national is a long term effort. This election has pretty much eliminated the concept of the ‘moderate’ New England Republican, especially in the House where only one such person is left. This is a historic shift: the Republicans began life as a Northeastern party. Then there’s Ohio: scandal ridden and economically flat Ohio is now back in the Dem. ranks which is a sea change ahead of the next Presidential election. And I already mentioned the possible libertarian shift out west. There is a real chance that the Republicans could be pushed into becoming a party of the South/Southwest and thus without a national base. Finally think about all those new Dem. governors: ahead of the next election cycle they have the opportunity to set agendas, re-district and so on [plus these wins create a pool of future Dem. talent].

So: this is a sea change. It may mark the end of the US drift to the right that we’ve seen since the 1980’s. No guarantee. But a real possibility. There are structural shifts in the electorate that are there to be exploited. The Dems. have a real opportunity. Let’s see if they grab it.

PS: I still wouldn’t want to run for president in 2008 because the problems in the Bush legacy are just so huge!

On reflection both the NYT and my e-mail have a common thread: the Republicans have created a mess for themselves by deserting old fashioned Republicanism [small government, libertarian social values etc] with a far more right wing version that is dramatically different. The current administration and its allies in the pre-election congress were decidedly ‘big government’: they ran the largest spending spree in history. That is not at all traditional Republicanism. It has no appeal to those self reliant thrifty New Englanders who deserted the party in droves this year.

Similarly the intrusions into our private lives by the religiously inspired right wingers is in no way a Republican value. The GOP used to stand for less government intrusion not more. The new Republicans misinterpreted the nation’s conservative tendency on social matters as a mandate to legislate their views into our lives. They hence advocated a radical agenda: not at all a conservative one.

These are just two aspects of the problem the Republicans now face. They have to decide whether they will continue their drift out to the far right, in which case they won’t win many elections in the medium future. Or they can drift back towards the center and start advocating those old values of thrift, individualism, responsibility etc that enabled them to take control of the political agenda since the late 1970’s.

Unless they choose this second option they will become the mirror image of the 1980’s Democratic party: a party tied to old ideas and with no place at the table of policy development.

What is worse for the country as a whole is the startling elimination of the Republicans from New England. I don’t like the implication of a country divided along geographical lines. The US has always been a fragile coalition of radically different geographies [it is after all an internal empire!], regional fault lines are a significant danger: when it reaches the point where political parties are essentially representing a region like “the south” or “the farm belt” then the nation begins to lose coherence and democracy suffers. We need both major parties to be vibrant and competitive everywhere, that way we protect our right to choose. A viable alternative is the best protection of liberty, it is a shame that the extremists in the Republican party have damaged the country by pursuing a regional strategy.