Immigration Confrontation Growing
The Republicans had hoped to use immigration a ‘wedge’ issue this fall, but already they are deeply divided over the way ahead. This morning’s New York Times exemplifies the division. Here is their story about the huge rallies held this past weekend opposing strict new immigration laws: Groundswell of Protests Back Illegal Immigrants
Then, on their Op-Ed page Paul Krugman lays out a sober analysis of the issues. He concludes in a surprisingly non-partisan way that the issue is far too complex for immediate and ill-considered legislation to solve. His article is hidden behind the Time’s obnoxious “TimesSelect” barrier, so let me paraphrase his argument: something needs to be done about the influx of illegal immigration, particularly that from Mexico. It is not clear what that action is however. From an economic standpoint waves of illegal immigrants tend to lower the wages available to local American workers. That reduces the incentive for American workers to perform certain activities. This creates a self-fulfilling cycle that produces the notion that there are jobs that Americans “won’t do and therefore we need immigrants to do them”. This argument is probably not correct. Studies have shown that were it not for illegal immigration wages to high school educated Americans would be approximately 8% higher than they are. So immigration has a depressing effect on wages.
Studies also show that the economy at large scarecly benefits from immigration. As a result there is little incentive for non-commital voters to rally behind a more liberal pro-immigrant position.
Furthermore immigrants bring in families who consume considerable local welfare and support dollars. But because the workers are illegal they are not paying taxes to contribute to those services. This damaging effect is far greater in areas where services are generous such as California, than in areas where services are miserly such as Texas.
Krugman also points out that the only people who really benefit from a guest worker program such as that suggested by George Bush are the businesses who hire them. Those businesses get a below market cost labor pool that is unable to bargain for improvements.
Clearly immigration has now become a hot political topic. The Bush proposal is flawed for the reasons Krugman gives, and efforts to turn illegal immigrants into felons the way that the House version of the legislation is surely doomed to run afoul of the backlash amongst the Hispanic community. Those House efforts have all the hallmarks of pandering to an extreme Republican base and are not the basis for a long term well thought out policy.
So I agree that we need to take a deep breath and have a more open and considered dialog before rushing to legislate. That’s an argumant for doing nothing, which is something I rarely advocate!
